产业发展与经济发展联系紧密,集聚经济影响产业发展。基于2003~2019年中国285个地级市面板数据,以中欧班列开通作为准自然实验,本文运用多期双重差分模型实证检验了中欧班列开行的产业集聚影响及作用机制。实证研究发现:中欧班列开通引致“重服务、轻制造”的偏向性产业集聚态势,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性检验显示:中欧班列开通的制造业集聚减少效应在西部、内陆以及人口规模较小的地区更明显,而生产性服务业集聚的增长效应在东部、沿海以及人口规模较大的地区更加明显。文章为中欧班列开行的经济潜能研究提供了新的视角,为优化中欧班列运行模式提供了参考,并丰富了跨境铁路交通基础设施影响产业集聚的文献研究。Industrial development is closely linked to economic growth, and agglomeration economies influence industrial development. Using panel data from 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019, this study considers the launch of the China-Europe Railway Express (CERE) as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of the CERE on industrial agglomeration and its mechanisms. The empirical study finds that the CERE leads to a “service-oriented, manufacturing-light” pattern of industrial agglomeration. This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the reduction in manufacturing agglomeration is more significant in western, inland, and smaller-population regions, while the increase in producer services agglomeration is more prominent in eastern, coastal, and larger-population regions. This study provides a new perspective on the economic potential of the CERE, offers suggestions for optimizing its operation, and enriches the literature on the impact of cross-border railway infrastructure on industrial agglomeration.
