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国家自然科学基金(40625017)

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The early-warning effects of assimilation of the observations over the large-scale slope of the “World Roof” on its downstream weather forecasting被引量:2
2009年
To improve the numerical simulation of the severe snow storms occurred in the south of China and the middle/lower reaches of Changjiang River during January of 2008, the observations from the automatic weather stations (AWS) over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its surrounding areas were assimi-lated into the Weather Research and Forecasts (WRF) model using multi-cycle 3-dimensional varia-tional data assimilation (3DVAR). Due to the large-scale special topography of the QXP and its sur-rounding areas which may reach up to the mid-troposphere, the AWS located at different height on the deep slope of the plateau are different to those located on plains and take a role analogous in some extent to that of radio soundings in obtaining the vertical "profile" information of the atmosphere, and have the advantages in the aspects of sampling frequency, location/height fixing, and synchronization. The information captured by these AWS may carry the early-warning "strong signals" in the upstream sensitive area for the downstream weather systems to the east of the plateau and thus the assimilation of these AWS data is expected to lead to significant improvements on the simulation of the severe weather system occurred in its downstream areas through adjusting the 3-dimensional structures of the atmospheric thermal-dynamics for the initial conditions of the model. This study indicates that the assimilated information of moisture, temperature and pressure carried in the observations of AWS over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding areas is very important and useful in the forecasting of precipitation in its downstream areas.
PENG ShiQiuXU XiangDeSHI XiaoHuiWANG DongXiaoZHU YuXiangPU JingJiao
关键词:雪暴
Covariation of the Indonesian Throughflow and South China Sea Throughflow Associated with the 1976/77 Regime Shift被引量:8
2010年
Changes in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the South China Sea throughflow-measured by the Luzon Strait Transport (LST)-associated with the 1976/77 regime shift are analyzed using the Island Rule theory and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation dataset. Results show that LST increased but ITF transport decreased after 1975. Such changes were induced by variations in wind stress associated with the regime shift. The strengthening of the easterly wind anomaly east of the Luzon Strait played an important role in the increase of LST after 1975, while the westerly wind anomaly in the equatorial Pacific contributed significantly to the decrease in ITF transport after 1975; accounting for 53% of the change. After 1975, the Kuroshio Current strengthened and the Mindanao Current weakened in response to a decrease in the total transport of the North Equatorial Current. Both the North Equatorial Countercurrent and the South Equatorial Current weakened after 1975, and an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the western equatorial Pacific prevented the tropical Pacific water from entering the Indian Ocean directly.
刘钦燕王东晓周文谢强张燕
“世界屋脊”大地形坡面探测同化信息对下游天气的预警效应被引量:7
2008年
采用WRF模式多时间层三维变分同化技术(3DVAR),将青藏高原及其周边地区AWS自动气象站观测网多要素资料同化进数值模式的初始场,对发生于2008年1月中国南方及长江中下游特大雪灾天气进行数值模拟试验.由于青藏高原具有极其陡峭的大地形坡面,且高耸于对流层中部,故分布于高原大地形"坡面"不同高度的自动站网观测要素,将与无线电探空探测获取的大气"廓线"信息存在着某种程度的关联性,其不仅在观测点高度、梯度特征,而且在观测时间频数、"定点"、"定高"及其同步性等方面均具有不同于平原自动站、常规探空的特殊功能优势.高原大地形坡面自动站网信息同化场亦可提供高原东部下游天气系统高敏感区前兆性"强信号",并实现模式高原及周边区域初始场大气动力、热力三维结构客观化调整,从而提升下游区域灾害天气系统模拟与预报能力.研究表明,青藏高原及其周边地区自动站的水汽、温度、气压等资料同化信息对于预报下游区域的降水预报至关重要.
彭世球徐祥德施晓晖王东晓朱玉祥浦静姣
关键词:自动气象站资料暴风雪
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