A new approach, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is introduced to study the predictability of El Ni駉-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a theoretical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The differences between CNOP and linear singular vector (LSV) are demonstrated. The results suggest that the nonlinear model and CNOP are superior in determining error growth for studying predictability of the ENSO. In particular, the CNOP approach is used to explore the nature of the 憇pring predictability barrier?in ENSO prediction.
MU Mu & DUAN Wansuo LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Both numerical simulation and theoretical analysis of seawater intrusion in coastal regions are of great theoretical importance in environmental sciences. The mathematical model can be described as a coupled system of three dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations with initial-boundary value problems. In this paper, according to the actual conditions of molecular and three-dimensional characteristic of the problem, we construct the characteristic finite element alternating-direction schemes which can be divided into three continuous one-dimensional problems. By making use of tensor product algorithm, and priori estimation theory and techniques, the optimal order estimates in H1 norm are derived for the error in the approximate solution.
Zhi-yue ZhangLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China & School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China
