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国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB956000)

作品数:7 被引量:25H指数:3
相关作者:张志春袁东亮李博刘超徐永生更多>>
相关机构:中国科学院中国科学院研究生院中国科学院大学更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室开放基金更多>>
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边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式对2013年夏季中国东部极端高温预测的改进试验被引量:2
2016年
使用NCEP再分析资料对国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式BCC_CM1.0的多年平均场进行订正,然后嵌套区域气候模式RegCM3,建立基于边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式系统。使用该系统进行28年夏季回报及2013年夏季业务预测,并与直接使用BCC_CM1.0模式与RegCM3模式嵌套的模式系统进行对比。结果表明,引入边界强迫场订正技术后,区域气候模式系统对多年平均夏季气温、降水回报能力有了显著提高,且回报的高温界限值分布更接近于观测。除对2013年夏季东北地区气温距平预测效果变差外模式系统对于2013年中国东部中部地区夏季气温距平异常偏高、夏季高温日数异常偏多等观测事实的预测性能有显著提高。区域气候模式系统回报的多年平均夏季西太平洋副热带高压与观测更为接近是其对2013年夏季极端高温事件预测能力提高的关键所在。
董广涛陈葆德陈伯民史军
关键词:区域气候模式回报试验
Summer Persistence Barrier of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Central Western North Pacific被引量:2
2012年
The persistence barrier of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific was investigated and compared with the ENSO spring persistence barrier. The results show that SSTAs in the central western North Pacific (CWNP) have a persistence barrier in summer: the persistence of SSTAs in the CWNP shows a significant decline in summer regardless of the starting month. Mechanisms of the summer persistence barrier in the CWNP are different from those of the spring persistence barrier of SSTAs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The phase locking of SSTAs to the annual cycle does not explain the CWNP summer persistence barrier. Remote ENSO forcing has little linear influence on the CWNP summer persistence barrier, compared with local upper-ocean process and atmospheric forcing in the North Pacific. Starting in wintertime, SSTAs extend down to the deep winter mixed layer then become sequestered beneath the shallow summer mixed layer, which is decoupled from the surface layer. Thus, wintertime SSTAs do not persist through the following summer. Starting in summertime, persistence of summer SSTAs until autumn can be explained by the atmospheric forcing through a positive SSTAs-cloud/radiation feedback mechanism because the shallow summertime mixed layer is decoupled from the temperature anomalies at depth, then the following autumnwinter-spring, SSTAs persist. Thus, summer SSTAs in the CWNP have a long persistence, showing a significant decline in the following summer. In this way, SSTAs in the CWNP show a persistence barrier in summer regardless of the starting month.
赵霞李建平张文君
基于Argo浮标的西北太平洋环流特征分析被引量:4
2015年
基于2004年1月-2009年12月月平均Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography)温盐格点资料,结合 P-vector 方法重构了西北太平洋绝对地转流,重点分析了西北太平洋环流时空变化特征。结果表明,基于Argo资料西北太平洋三维结构特征与以前的研究结果是一致的。与WOA09(World Ocean Atlas 2009)计算的纬向流相比, Argo资料计算的纬向流要偏大。北赤道逆流(NECC)、北赤道流(NEC)、黑潮再生流(KCC)和黑潮延伸体(KE)都有明显的季节和年际变化。NECC 和 NEC 基本上呈现春强秋弱的季节变化特征, KCC和KE的季节特征与NECC和NEC存在反相关系。NECC和NEC表现出周期为1-2 a的年际信号, KCC和KE为非周期性的年际信号。表层NEC流核所在位置以及NEC南边界位置都有南移的趋势。另外, NEC、KCC和KE的流量也呈逐渐增大的趋势。
张志春袁东亮李博
关键词:北赤道流
1950~2010年PDO对北太平洋地区海平面变化影响的量化与评估被引量:3
2017年
本文研究和估计了1950~2010年不同太平洋年代际涛动(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)事件对北太平洋地区的海平面上升趋势所造成的影响。研究使用了SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)的海表面高度(sea surface height,SSH)数据资料,通过多元线性回归方法,分离了由PDO事件所引起的海表面高度变化(PDO-SSH),以此分析PDO事件对海平面变化所造成的影响。结果表明,PDO-SSH所引起的海表面变化趋势的空间分布,及其对区域海平面变化的遮掩效果,和对应时期内PDO信号的振幅和周期有着紧密的关系。进一步的分析表明,PDO事件对北太平洋地区SSH变化所造成的影响是不均匀的,在东西太平洋有着相反的变化趋势。1960~1989年,具有较长数据时间长度的PDO信号对海平面变化的影响,要强于高度计投入使用后的时期的表现,而受其影响最重的海域出现在赤道西太平洋海域、阿留申群岛及北美沿岸地区,PDO-SSH在上述地区SSH的占比甚至高达60%。
刘超徐永生
关键词:海面高度北太平洋
An Assessment of Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the FGOALS-g2 Coupled Climate System Model被引量:4
2013年
Lag correlations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs), subsurface temperature anomalies, and surface zonal wind anomalies (SZWAs) produced by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System modeh Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) are analyzed and com- pared with observations. The insignificant, albeit positive, lag correlations between the SSTAs in the south- eastern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) in fall and the SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific cold tongue in the following summer through fall are found to be not in agreement with the observational analysis. The model, however, does reproduce the significant lag correlations between tile SSHAs in the STIO in fall and those in the cold tongue at the one-year time lag in the observations. These, along with the significant lag correlations between the SSTAs in the STIO in fall and the subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific vertical section in the following year, suggest that the Indonesian Throughflow plays an important role in propagating the Indian Ocean anomalies into the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Analyses of the interannual anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow transport suggest that the FGOALS-g2 climate system simulates, but underestimates, the oceanic channel dynamics between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. FGOALS-g2 is shown to produce lag correlations between the SZWAs over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the cold tongue SSTAs at the one-year time lag that are too strong to be realistic in comparison with observations. The analyses suggest that the atmospheric bridge over the Indo-Pacific Ocean is overestimated in the FGOALS-g2 coupled climate model.
徐腾飞袁东亮俞永强赵霞
基于Argo资料的北太平洋绝对地转流计算
2015年
针对海洋实测流速资料极其匮乏的事实,利用2004年1月~2009年12月月平均的Argo温盐格点资料,结合改进的P-vector方法重构北太平洋绝对地转流流场。与卫星高度计和实测流速的比较以及相关性分析表明,重构的绝对地转流是可信的,可以用来研究不同大尺度环流特征及其动力结构。可以为研究海洋动力过程和气候变化提供一套有用的流场数据。
张志春袁东亮
关键词:北太平洋ARGO资料
A Hybrid Coupled Model for the Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere System.Part I: Description and Basic Performance被引量:10
2015年
A hybrid coupled model (HCM) is constructed for El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin.An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model for interannual wind stress anomalies to represent their dominant coupling with sea surface temperatures.In addition,various relevant forcing and feedback processes exist in the region and can affect ENSO in a significant way; their effects are simply represented using historical data and are incorporated into the HCM,including stochastic forcing of atmospheric winds,and feedbacks associated with freshwater flux,ocean biology-induced heating (OBH),and tropical instability waves (TIWs).In addition to its computational efficiency,the advantages of making use of such an HCM enable these related forcing and feedback processes to be represented individually or collectively,allowing their modulating effects on ENSO to be examined in a clean and clear way.In this paper,examples are given to illustrate the ability of the HCM to depict the mean ocean state,the circulation pathways connecting the subtropics and tropics in the western Pacific,and interannual variability associated with ENSO.As satellite data are taken to parameterize processes that are not explicitly represented in the HCM,this work also demonstrates an innovative method of using remotely sensed data for climate modeling.Further model applications related with ENSO modulations by extratropical influences and by various forcings and feedbacks will be presented in Part Ⅱ of this study.
ZHANG Rong-Hua
关键词:ENSOFORCING
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