在前人工作的基础上,利用门限极值的广义Pareto分布理论和超出阈值峰（Peak Over Threshold,POT）方法,提出了一种确定湖泊参照状态浓度的新方法.该方法不仅能够给出更为精确的置信区间,而且克服了广义极值分布理论取用数据浪费等缺陷.将该方法应用到太湖的水质基准参照状态中,通过POT方法对太湖8个站点1995~2006年总氮（TN）,总磷（TP）和叶绿素a（Chl-a）的数据进行预处理,分别以-1.0mg/L,-0.05mg/L与-4μg/L作为它们观测值相反数的门限值,结果表明观测值的相反数符合广义Pareto分布,验证了方法的可行性.推荐采用25%分位点的值作为太湖总氮,总磷和叶绿素a的参照状态,即太湖的参照状态是：总氮0.66mg/L；总磷0.023mg/L；叶绿素a为1.27μg/L.最后分别得出了它们各自的95%置信区间,而且其精度明显高于广义极值分布理论结果.
Flow characteristics of thermally stratified shear flow in braided rivers are particularly complicated and poorly understood. In this study, a series of typical flow patterns was examined and their critical criteria were determined. Four flow patterns were identified: mixed, locally unstable, continuously stratified, and two-layer flow. Temperature distributions of the four types of flow patterns were analyzed and compared.The critical Froude numbers for unstable flow, FDcr1, and stable flow, FDcr2, were determined to be 6 and 1, respectively, and comparison of FDcr1 and FDcr2 to the peak Froude numbers, FD1 at the outer bank and FD2 at the inner bank along the anabranch, allowed the flow patterns to be assessed. Then, a discriminant based on initial Jeffreys-Keulegan stability parameters was established to distinguish the flow stages from twolayer flow to completely mixed flow. It is indicated that the three critical Jeffreys-Keulegan parameters increased with the diversion angle of braided rivers. Results also show that, compared to the stratified flow in straight and curved channels, it was more difficult for braided stratified flow to maintain as two-layer flow, and it more easily became mixed flow. Consequently, empirical expressions for stability criteria of the thermally stratified shear flow in braided rivers are presented.
Li GuQiu-lan LiBo DaiZu-lin HuaXiao-dong LiuKe-jian Chu
